Is a new independent country going to be formed in India’s neighborhood? The rebel army is close to victory!

New Delhi. The United League of Arakan (ULA) and its military branch Arakan Army are very close to achieving the goal that seemed impossible till three months ago. This goal is to achieve independence. To create an independent country. The Arakan Army has already captured 15 out of 18 cities in the Rakhine (formerly Arakan) state of the Myanmar Union.

However, three important places are still in the hands of the military power of Myanmar (Burma). These places are the Sittwe port located in the Bay of Bengal. This port has been financed by India under the Kaladhan Multimodal Project. The second place is the Kyaukphyu port built with the help of China and the third place is Muanang city.

On the last day of the year 2024, the Arakan Army took control of the city of Gwa. Last week, the rebel Arakan Army captured the city of An. The strategic importance of this city can be gauged from the fact that An is the headquarters of the Western Military’s regional command.

Just a few days ago, the Arakan Army snatched Maungdaw town from the army and with this the Arakan Army has completely captured the border with Bangladesh.

If these rebel groups succeed in capturing the entire Rakhine province and declaring independence, it will be the first successful separatist military operation in Asia since the birth of Bangladesh in 1971. As a result, a new country can be born in India’s neighborhood.

After establishing control over most of Rakhine province and the strategic city of Paletwa in Chin state, the United League of Arakan-Arakan Army has agreed to talk to the military junta. Both sides have resorted to the Haigeng Agreement mediated by China for this. The agreement, led by China in January 2024, states that, “We are always ready to resolve existing internal issues through political dialogue rather than military solutions.”

Confidence to India and China
The United League of Arakan has tried to take ‘foreign nations’ into confidence in a statement. This statement of the United League of Arakan has also been issued in Chinese language. In this, the ULA has said that it will protect foreign investment i.e. investment of India and China in Rakhine State.

Appreciating the “active leadership of the People’s Republic of China”, the Arakan Army said that the Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government “welcomes and recognizes all foreign investments that will benefit the Arakan region and assist in its development and progress. The Arakan Army has said that the government will “take special care to ensure the safety of those involved in investment activities, projects and businesses.”

This statement of the Arakan Army has come after a secret meeting of senior military leaders of this organization and top security officials of India and China.
Efforts for political recognition continue

But it is not yet clear whether the United League of Arakan-Arakan Army will launch a direct offensive to capture Sittwe and Kyaukphyu or wait to assess Chinese and Indian reactions.

The Arakan Army’s victory came despite Myanmar’s use of air force and navy. So, the rebels may need a brief respite to regroup for one last big attack, but the real reason behind offering talks and reassuring foreign investors is to consider the possibility of getting diplomatic recognition if independence is indeed achieved.

Without recognition from important countries in both Asia and the Western world, the United League of Arakan’s objective of creating an independent state will not be achieved.

Two more organizations are involved in the fight for independence from the Myanmar government, together they are called the Three Brotherhood Alliance. Apart from the Arakan Army, the Tang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDDA) have now agreed to start a political dialogue with the Myanmar military junta, which could be possible due to the mediation of China.

But they have refused to hand back the city of Lashio, the headquarters of the northwestern military command, to the military junta, as China wants.

If the Burmese military junta agrees to talks, the Arakan rebels may not immediately push for independence, but they can explore the possibility of greater autonomy with other ethnic armed organizations. This partly depends on how successful other rebel groups are in their military attacks against the junta.

Myanmar is clearly becoming the new Syria of the East, but so far it has not attracted the kind of global attention that is expected.