Will farmers bear the burden of GDP in 2025? Know which sector is booming and which is in bad shape

New Delhi: According to the advance estimates of GDP released by the Central Government on Tuesday, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at the rate of 6.4% in the financial year 2024-25, which is the lowest level in four years.

The special thing is that this estimate is also less than the recent estimate of 6.6 percent of the Reserve Bank of India for the current financial year ending March 2025. But in the meantime, like the Corona period, once again the agriculture sector will be seen supporting the GDP and a strong increase in the growth rate of the agriculture sector has been expected.

Expectation of tremendous growth in agriculture sector
While sharing the advance estimate of India’s GDP Growth by the National Statistical Office, it was said that while on the one hand there may be a slowdown in all sectors, on the other hand, the agriculture sector and other activities related to it will once again be seen playing an important role in GDP growth. The agriculture sector is holding on despite adverse conditions and is showing a ray of hope in FY2024-25. Strong growth has been projected in this sector.

Growth rate can be up to 3.8%
If we look at the government data, strong monsoon, strong Kharif crop production will boost growth in this sector and there will be an increase in agriculture gross value added. Experts have claimed that the performance of the agriculture sector can be a relief for the Indian economy and the growth rate in this sector can increase to 3.8 percent in the current financial year, which was 1.4 percent in the previous financial year 2023-24.

Impact of strong monsoon will be seen
According to the first advance estimate of GDP for FY 25, GVA Growth at current prices is expected to be even better at 10% as compared to 5.4% in FY 2024. In fact, this growth has been estimated by the government due to good Kharif crop and promotion of Rabi sowing amid strong monsoon. Due to weak monsoon in the last financial year, the growth rate of the agriculture sector had declined.

Good growth expected due to these reasons
It is worth noting that better monsoon and favorable prices of grains have also worked to promote Rabi sowing. In the month of September 2024, the monsoon ended with about 8 percent more rain, which is the highest in the last 3 years. Due to good rains in the June-September quarter, Kharif rice production (July to June) was estimated to be around 120 million tonnes, which was 5.9 percent more than the previous season.

Apart from this, the production of other major Kharif crops including maize is also expected to increase. Earlier this year, till January 3, sowing of wheat, the main crop of Rabi, has been completed in about 32 million hectares, which is 1.74 percent more than 2024. Due to all these figures, the government has expressed hope of tremendous growth in the agriculture sector.

Support was also given during the Corona period
These estimates expressed by the government are looking exactly like the time of Corona period. Let us tell you that when the Kovid-19 epidemic was raging in the country, even at that time, despite all the challenges, the agriculture sector supported the Indian economy with a growth rate of 3.4 percent. If we look at the government data of that time, the contribution of agriculture and related activities to the country’s gross value addition in 2019-20 was 17.8 percent.

Decline expected in these sectors as well
The government expects the real GVA of agriculture as well as manufacturing and finance, real estate and service sectors to see a growth rate of 8.6% and 7.3% respectively during FY25. On the other hand, the growth rate in the service sector including hotels, transport and telecom is expected to decline to 5.8 percent compared to 6.4 percent in FY2023-24.